£1000 Prize

ranfuchs [Member]
18/05/08 @ 13:25

good choice but no £1000 Im afraid

http://tinyurl.com/5s3c7h

Znethru ^pro
http://www.febland.net/
18/05/08 @ 15:17

£1,000 was never going to change my life (unless perhaps if it was in Young Head Queen Victoria "shield-back" Gold sovereigns in UNC condition).

husbandorcat [Member]
18/05/08 @ 13:14

Nope.
Who needs £1000, anyway?
Imagine the stress of trying to decide how to spend it.

ranfuchs [Member]
18/05/08 @ 13:25

give it to Burma. They will know what to do with it? Maybe buy another painting

husbandorcat [Member]
18/05/08 @ 13:49

What are the organisers of the event going to do with the £1,000 if I don't choose it?
Maybe I can shame them into giving it to Burma anyway, whether I choose it or not, by announcing before I choose that that's what I'm planning to do.

ranfuchs [Member]
19/05/08 @ 16:23

they will use it for some math education

TomTheCat [Member]
18/05/08 @ 13:32

the sceptic one in me says: open the last one!
why, i ask.
well, think about it: your first choice was 33,33% likely to be right, but now with the blue one it's a fully 50% chance to win!!!

CassandraofTroy [Member]
18/05/08 @ 16:45

But so is the red one.
So why bother to change?

TomTheCat [Member]
18/05/08 @ 17:01

'cause this is what the sceptic one in me says: how can you pick the right one with your first try?
therefor the blue one!

CassandraofTroy [Member]
18/05/08 @ 17:53

Aaaahhh, but that's the one you chose to put on one side...
So you chose it not to be the right one.
So maybe the one you chose that you assumed wasn't the right one really was... by your logic

TomTheCat [Member]
18/05/08 @ 18:00

...well, it's just about logic, that's right. but there is always the sceptic one in me, as i said...

ranfuchs [Member]
19/05/08 @ 16:24

answer to be published soon

Melinda_blog [Member]
19/05/08 @ 20:09

In seven volumes.

tylluanpenry ^pro
18/05/08 @ 22:47

Choose either - but resolve to walk away smiling whether you win or lose! (alternatively you could resolve to walk away crying, win or lose....)

ranfuchs [Member]
19/05/08 @ 16:24

which is the reason so many people lose gambling (or in the stock market)

tylluanpenry ^pro
19/05/08 @ 22:11

Could be, although I suspect the real reason so many people ultimately lose when they gamble is because they don't quit when they're ahead.

ranfuchs [Member]
19/05/08 @ 22:15

or simply that gambling is built to lose. That is most people lose, because this is how the game is made

tylluanpenry ^pro
19/05/08 @ 22:20

I agree - the system is loaded against the players. But sometimes the players just don't seem to know when to stop playing!

ranfuchs [Member]
19/05/08 @ 22:24

do you gamble?

tylluanpenry ^pro
19/05/08 @ 22:29

Sometimes. But then a bit of magic helps :))

Joker [Visitor]
http://www.trackpads.com/forum/point-counterpoint/
11/06/08 @ 09:57

It's amazing to think that, nearly twenty years after I first heard this one, the Monty Hall problem is still confounding people. There's a twist on this version with that 'second chance' business, but the initial odds of the first box being wrong still stack up in favour of the last box.

ranfuchs [Member]
11/06/08 @ 22:59

It's amazing to think that many conclusions in psychology were the result of interpreting results of experiments without understanding the basic conditional probability. I wonder if anyone will bother to change the theory now